Agricultural Growth Programme (AGP) Survey and Establishing a Baseline Data for Impact Evaluation.

The project was a 5-year programme that was started in 2010/11 and implemented in 83 selected woredas of the Amhara, Oromiya, SNNPR and Tigray regions.

Client: Ministry of Agriculture

Objective of the study: The essential components of the AGP intervention are: expansion and strengthening of irrigation agriculture, increasing crop and livestock productivity, enhancing processing and marketing (commercialization) of high-value agricultural commodities. The overall objective of the study was to produce baseline data on these intervention components on the basis of impact result indicators in order to be able to monitor and evaluate the overall implementation and the immediate and ultimate impacts of the Agricultural Growth Programme.


Methodology Used : The baseline study was designed in such a way so as to enable the assessment of the impacts of AGP on the target variables of agricultural growth, productivity, commercialization, input use and institutional services. This was done by comparing the changes in the target variables with those of the baseline status of the AGP in intervention woredas, and by comparing the changes in the target variables withthose of the quasi-control (non-intervention) woredas. The baseline data was collected through a household survey by employing a structured questionnaire and through key informant interviews.


Concluding Remarks The Agricultural Growth Programme was launched with the aim of realizing the following outcomes:
1) Increasing agricultural productivity of major crops and livestock,
2) Increasing market access for key and high value agricultural commodities,
3) Establishing and/or capacitating farmers’ organizations,
4) Strengthening key advisory services for enhanced productivity and value addition,
5) Scaling up best practices,
6) Increasing market orientation and specialization in selected key value chains,
7) Realizing and managing demand-driven infrastructure investment for improved agricultural productivity in a sustainable manner,
8)Realizing and managing demand-driven infrastructure investments for improved access to markets in a sustainable manner.  

     Two problems have been observed when considering the above outcomes while conducting the AGP Baseline Survey. Firstly, many of the outcomes given were not adequately SMART (specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and time-bound). Secondly, the indicators given for each outcome were vague, less specific and difficult to measure. Besides, the assumption that some of the indicators of the outcomes could be collected through rapid interviews of woreda officials/managers  was tested to be wrong, due to the absence of well documented records of quantitative data/measures on agricultural activities and interventions and projects in each woreda. The main point made by the survey was that outcomes and their indicators must be stated clearly, specifically, measurably, relevantly and attainably so that data on them could be collected using a structured questionnaire.

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